Expiration Week Countdown for July 13, 2025

NOTE: This material should be read and understood before you decide to trade these recommendations, and before you determine the extent of your capital commitment.

Expiration Week Countdown will recommend options on 6 stocks that have the potential to make significant moves during front-month options expiration week, based on our Expectational Analysis® approach. This method incorporates a combination of sentiment, fundamental and technical drivers to identify situations that offer strong profit potential. Moreover, by utilizing options instead of a stock to leverage the anticipated move, a trader can enhance his/her returns and do this with minimum dollars at risk.

Our Expiration Week Countdown trades will be front-month call or put options targeting gains of 100%, 200%, or 300%. For each trade, we will provide a specific target profit, a brief description of the drivers underlying the recommendation, and an "optimal entry zone" defining a price range for the underlying stock within which we feel optimal results may be obtained.

Target profits for the 6 recommendations in our Expiration Week Countdown will fall into one of three categories: +100% (double the purchase price), +200% (triple the purchase price), or 300% (quadruple the purchase price.) Trades placed in the 100% target profit group can be viewed as "high profit/lower risk," while the 200% target profit group may be classified as "higher profit/higher risk." In this manner, we set ourselves up to achieve bigger gains when our risk of large losses is highest, and this assures us that risk and potential reward are properly aligned.

The "Optimal Entry Zone" provided for each trade describes a range of prices for the underlying stock at which we feel optimal results can be achieved. This zone should be considered a guideline for position entry. All Expiration Week Countdown trades should generally be entered on the first trading day after they are received, with respect to the parameters outlined by this Optimal Entry Zone.

We strongly urge that you do not enter a recommended option play when the underlying is significantly outside the optimal entry zone given to you on Sunday evening. If you want to enter when the underlying is slightly above or below the range, do so with the understanding that your risk-reward in the trade will be compromised a little depending on how far outside the underlying is with respect to the OEZ. If the underlying is significantly outside the zone, do not place the trade. Under these circumstances, either the potential reward we saw in this trade has substantially deteriorated, or you could be entering an option that has a much greater chance of expiring worthless on expiration day relative to the data we were working with on Sunday evening. Be patient, and only enter the trade if the underlying moves back within or closer to the OEZ by the close of trading.

If uncertain about entering in the morning with respect to OEZ, we will send a follow-up by 12:15 p.m. ET if we do not intend on counting the trade on our track record as of noon. In such instances, we will send another follow-up after the close of trading. In the after-the-market close follow-up, we will notify you whether we are including or excluding the trade on our track record, based on the afternoon action.

Closeout instructions will not be provided for trades in our Expiration Week Countdown service. We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their expiration date, as set forth below.

Please note: There is no implicit statement or assessment underlying those recommendations carrying 300% target profits to the effect that we find these situations to be more attractive or more compelling than those underlying the recommendations carrying 200% target profits, or that there is a greater degree of confidence on our part that those trades with profits targeted at 300% have enhanced chances for success. In fact, it is axiomatic that 300% targeted trades are inherently riskier than their 200% targeted counterparts, as it is almost always the case in options trading that higher potential profit is associated with greater levels of risk of loss (in particular a more elevated probability for so-called total losses). We highly recommend that you trade all six of our recommendations -- but if you choose to trade a lesser number, we'd strongly advise against any selection approach that inherently favors those recommendations carrying 300% target profits.

Retail stock Abercrombie & Fitch’s (ANF) recent pullback is finding support from the 10-day moving average. This trendline tends to be supportive during bull rallies, so a longer-term reversal could be intact. There is also large put open interest (OI) at the 90-strike for the July standard expiration series, suggesting a push above it could trigger moves to the 95- or even 100-strike call level.

What’s more, a front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's pen interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.71 could be signaling an impending squeeze. Shorts are already in covering mode, with short interest down 19.4% in the last two reporting periods, though it still makes up 13.2% of the equity’s available float. Options are an affordable way to bet on future moves, as ANF’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) ranks in the low 3rd percentile of its annual range.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) Applied Materials (AMAT) July 18, 2025 200-strike put. We recommend targeting a gain of 300% on the trade (4x your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $196 and $200. At the close on Friday, July 11, this option was offered at $4.50. AMAT closed at $197.93 on Friday, July 11.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of Friday, July 18.

Applied Materials (AMAT) shares just failed to conquer their January highs. The security is also treading near its 20% year-to-date and -20% year-over-year levels, which could create a spot of confluence for potential rejection.  
The equity is rejecting the final large call level in stack at the 200-strike. There is plenty of room for shorts to pile on, with short interest making up only 1.9% of AMAT’s available float. Options are cheap, too, per the stock’s SVI that ranks lower than all readings from the past year.
Okta (OKTA) stock is trading just above its December highs, a level that created a pivot for its 2025 lows. The shares are trading into their 260-day moving average, with historical data showing that calls generate positive returns 75% of the time five days after such instances.

The equity is in negative gamma territory and near the end of a put stack, which could become supportive into July standard expiration series. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), OKTA’s 10-day call/put volume ratio ranks at 1.76 but is moving lower, which has been indicative of downtrends in the past.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) stock broke out from a five-week consolidation pattern, closing above $30 as the 20-day moving average catches up to the 20-unit moving average on the hourly timeframe. There is large call OI sitting at the 30- and 32-strikes, representing huge negative gamma from a dealer’s perspective. This suggests they may have to buy shares to hedge short call positions.

Short interest now represents 4.7% of the equity’s available float, after a 41.8% spike in the latest two-week reporting period. It’s worth noting that premiums are affordably priced now, per the security’s SVI of 37% that ranks in the 6th percentile of readings from the last 12 months.  


Cloud stock Samsara (IOT) recently closed below price support at $39, after forming a bearish descending triangle pattern. The 20-day moving average defines the downtrend on the daily chart, which recently met the 20-unit moving average on the hourly time frame, suggesting a confluence of both timeframes. Since its negative post-earnings reaction in June, the equity has been unable to stay above these levels, suggesting further weakness may be ahead.

Calls have been popular over the last 10 weeks. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, IOT’s 10-day call/put volume ratio ranks higher than all readings from the past year. Short sellers continue to press bets, however, with short interest rising 27.5% in the most recent reporting period. This creates the opportunity for a short squeeze, as 7.4% of the stock’s available float is sold short.

 The shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI) broke out of a bullish ascending triangle in late June, but have since drifted sideways amid light volume. The 20-day moving average coincidentally helps define the lower boundary of this pattern, with the stock’s slight pullback to the rising 20-hour moving average creating an attractive entry point.

There was large peak positive call gamma sitting at the 50- and 51-strikes, both of which expired on Friday, potentially removing a major roadblock that had been compressing volatility. Options are cheap, too, as SMCI’s SVI ranks at the bottom of annual readings. There is also room for a short squeeze, with 17.7% of the stock’s available float sold short.

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