Expiration Week Countdown for March 12, 2023

NOTE: This material should be read and understood before you decide to trade these recommendations, and before you determine the extent of your capital commitment.

Expiration Week Countdown will recommend options on 6 stocks that have the potential to make significant moves during front-month options expiration week, based on our Expectational Analysis^® approach. This method incorporates a combination of sentiment, fundamental and technical drivers to identify situations that offer strong profit potential. Moreover, by utilizing options instead of a stock to leverage the anticipated move, a trader can enhance his/her returns and do this with minimum dollars at risk.

Our Expiration Week Countdown trades will be front-month call or put options targeting gains of 100%, 200%, or 300%. For each trade, we will provide a specific target profit, a brief description of the drivers underlying the recommendation, and an "optimal entry zone" defining a price range for the underlying stock within which we feel optimal results may be obtained.

Target profits for the 6 recommendations in our Expiration Week Countdown will fall into one of three categories: +100% (double the purchase price), +200% (triple the purchase price), or 300% (quadruple the purchase price.) Trades placed in the 100% target profit group can be viewed as "high profit/lower risk," while the 200% target profit group may be classified as "higher profit/higher risk." In this manner, we set ourselves up to achieve bigger gains when our risk of large losses is highest, and this assures us that risk and potential reward are properly aligned.

The "Optimal Entry Zone" provided for each trade describes a range of prices for the underlying stock at which we feel optimal results can be achieved. This zone should be considered a guideline for position entry. All Expiration Week Countdown trades should generally be entered on the first trading day after they are received, with respect to the parameters outlined by this Optimal Entry Zone.

Follow-up instructions will not be provided for trades in our Expiration Week Countdown service. We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their expiration date, as set forth below.

Please note: There is no implicit statement or assessment underlying those recommendations carrying 200% target profits to the effect that we find these situations to be more attractive or more compelling than those underlying the recommendations carrying 100% target profits, or that there is a greater degree of confidence on our part that those trades with profits targeted at 200% have enhanced chances for success. In fact, it is axiomatic that 200% targeted trades are inherently riskier than their 100% targeted counterparts, as it is almost always the case in options trading that higher potential profit is associated with greater levels of risk of loss (in particular a more elevated probability for so-called total losses). We highly recommend that you trade all six of our expiration week recommendations -- but if you choose to trade a lesser number, we'd strongly advise against any selection approach that inherently favors those recommendations carrying 200% target profits.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) March 17, 2023 80-strike call. We recommend targeting a gain of 200% on the trade (3 times your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $81.00 and $84.00. At the close on Friday March 10, this option was offered at $4.25. AMD closed at $82.67 on Friday, March 10.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their respective expiration date.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Potential pullbacks to the 21- and 200-day moving averages could move in as support levels for chip stock AMD. The 200-hour moving average has also sparked interest as a potential floor, all while the shares have broken through to the $79.50 level.

Wild-Card Factors: Advanced Micro Devices stock has broken above its all-time high, but is now pulling back to a downtrend that is the site of a breakout in June and August of last year, as well as last month.

The equity's Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at 95 out of 100, meaning Advanced Micro Devices stock tends to outperform volatility estimates -- a boon for premium buyers. Premium is affordably priced as well, per AMD’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 53% that ranks in the 26th percentile of its annual range.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) the Alphabet (GOOG) March 17, 2023 94-strike put. We recommend targeting a gain of 200% on the trade (3 times your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $90.00 and $94.00. At the close on Friday March 10, this option was offered at $3.85. GOOG closed at $91.01 on Friday, March 10.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their respective expiration date.

Alphabet (GOOG): Google parent Alphabet stock recently failed at a retest of the peak March 95-strike put, giving traders the potential to run to the 80- and 85-strike put levels instead. Also failing at the year-to-date Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP), the equity has crossed below its 21-day and 200-hour moving averages. Short-term moving averages have rolled over and will most likely act as resistance until the next support level.

Wild-Card Factors: GOOG has broken down from the $93 pivot level, which could move in as resistance.

Meanwhile, Alphabet stock is sporting a call-heavy, 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.72 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ranks just one percentage point from an annual high.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) the American Express (AXP) March 17, 2023 162.50-strike call. We recommend targeting a gain of 200% on the trade (3 times your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $164.00 and $167.00. At the close on Friday March 10, this option was offered at $5.75. AXP closed at $165.70 on Friday, March 10.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their respective expiration date.

American Express (AXP): Financial giant AXP has been pulling back to $165, which demarcates the stock’s August 2022 highs and the $125 billion market cap value. A more than 10% year-to-date gain from the security is outperforming the broader SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), while the shares also pull back to the site of a former bull gap and 50-day moving average.

Wild-Card Factors: Short interest has increased 11% in 2023 alongside the stock’s rally up the charts.

Analysts are leaving plenty of room for upgrades moving forward, while we are also currently in the middle of the company’s earnings cycle, which means options are cheap when compared to their yearly range. This is per the stock’s SVI of 32% ranks in the 26th percentile of its annual range.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) the CrowdStrike (CRWD) March 17, 2023 121-strike put. We recommend targeting a gain of 200% on the trade (3 times your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $119.00 and $121.00. At the close on Friday March 10, this option was offered at $4.25. CRWD closed at $119.72 on Friday, March 10.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their respective expiration date.

CrowdStrike (CRWD): CRWD is suffering from a six-month loss of almost 40%, much steeper than the SPY. The stock has also just broken below the 100-day moving average after failing at the site of its May 2022 lows. Shares also look to be running into a trendline off its 2022 highs.

Wild-Card Factors: The top four open interest (OI) positions are calls, with a slight overall bias.

The shares’ 50-day buy-to-open call/put volume ratio at the ISE/CBOE/PHLX is at an extremely call-skewed 2.61 and ranks in the 94th percentile of its annual range. Premium is affordably priced though, per CRWD’s SVI of 54% that ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. Analysts look ripe for downgrades, with 33 of the 38 in coverage boasting a "buy " or "strong buy" rating.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) the Newmont (NEM) March 17, 2023 43-strike put. We recommend targeting a gain of 200% on the trade (3 times your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $42.00 and $43.00. At the close on Friday March 10, this option was offered at $1.41. NEM closed at $42.16 on Friday, March 10.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their respective expiration date.

Newmont (NEM): Shares of gold mining name NEM are seeing a rejection at the declining 80-hour moving average, which has show significance on several occasions in 2023 already. The equity has also penetrated the -10% year-to-date level within the past week, indicating that there could be continued selling pressure.

Wild-Card Factors: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling out of an overbought condition at last glance.

Calls are preferred in the options pits, and an unwinding of these bullish bets could push NEM lower. The equity sports a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.57 at the ISE/CBOE/PHLX. In simpler terms, nearly three calls have been bought for every put during the past two weeks.

Those looking to weigh in should consider options, noting the equity's SVS ranks at 95 out of 100, meaning Newmont stock tends to outperform volatility estimates -- a boon for premium buyers.

RECOMMENDATION: Place a market order to buy (to open) the Palo Alto Networks (PANW) March 17, 2023 182.50-strike call. We recommend targeting a gain of 200% on the trade (3 times your purchase price), with the Optimal Entry Zone between $182.00 and $187.00. At the close on Friday March 10, this option was offered at $6.10. PANW closed at $185.71 on Friday, March 10.

CLOSEOUT INSTRUCTIONS: We recommend that positions be closed at the first opportunity their stated target profit levels can be attained. All remaining open positions should be closed using market orders on the afternoon of their respective expiration date.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW): PANW has been strongly outperforming on the charts, up more than 30% in 2023 so far, also showing short-term relative strength. Pullbacks to the rising 100-hour moving average has been a solid entry point historically, which the shares are nearing.

Wild-Card Factors: The stock’s RSI is rising out of an oversold condition, while the company’s positive earnings reaction is holding its gap.

Lastly, short interest has remained stubbornly high. Short interest now accounts for nearly 7% of the stock’s total available float, and would take over four days to cover, at the stock’s average pace of daily trading.

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